EliteTracker gir hvert lag i Eliteserien og OBOS-ligaen en ELO-rating bygd på resultater og forventede mål (xG), og simulerer resten av sesongen for å vise hvert lags sjanse for gull, Europa, opprykk og nedrykk. Slå på JavaScript for å se rating, tabeller og kampodds.

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Where everyone finishes

The finish grid

Each team's probability of finishing in every position, ranked by most likely outcome.

Table

Pick any club for its focus page.

The ladder

All teams in both divisions compared on one rating scale.

Matches

Every week of the season: results going back, the model's odds and likeliest scorelines going forward.

Compare clubs

Predictions for a fictional match between any two clubs. Compare each team's rating history.

Model card

Every number above comes from these settings and this data.

How it works

Each club carries one ELO rating. After every match, the winner gains points and the loser loses them — more if the result was unexpected. The gap between two clubs' ratings gives one set of win/draw/loss odds; a second set comes from each club's attack and defence ratings, which move on expected goals (xG) — FotMob for Eliteserien, Sofascore for OBOS-ligaen — so a lucky win counts for less than a deserved one. The odds shown blend 25 % Elo with 75 % attack/defence.
Cross-season regression pulls every rating 12 % toward the division average during the off-season. This prevents one strong or weak year from carrying over unchanged, while still letting form carry momentum.
Simulations replay the remaining fixtures thousands of times. Each simulated match first picks an outcome (win, draw, or loss) from the pre-match probabilities, then draws a scoreline from the two clubs' attack and defence ratings — the goals each side is expected to score and concede.
Two OBOS-ligaen clubs were promoted from the third tier, which is outside this project's data. They start at the bottom of the ladder and are corrected only by results.